Has PTA Been Repeatedly Hit By A Bad Attack? Can It Rebound?

Recently, due to the weakness of the environment, the trend of PTA is obviously not good enough. At present, the supply side maintenance plan has yet to be implemented, while the Fuhua chemical industry has been restarted. The supply of the market is worse than that. The downstream polyester cash flow has been repaired, and the speed of the fabric storage has slowed down. However, the reduction in production is not yet expected to be reversed, and the impact of the macro environment is not yet reversed. The futures market is approaching the 5000 gateway support, and the market is waiting to break the negative feedback event.

PX price downturn

Because of the weakening of crude oil, the price of PX also goes down, and the PX- naphtha spreads in the normal range between 300-450.

In terms of installations, Fuhai PX plant plan was restarted in August 8th and August 15th respectively. Liaoyang Petrochemical capacity expanded to 1 million tons and has been restarted; Hengyi Brunei PX project and Hainan refinery PX two phase 1 million ton / year device were postponed to the end of September; the Sinochem Hong Run PX plant also has the possibility of postponing.

On the whole, the devices are on schedule, and the trend of PX follow up trend is weak. PTA cost side has no strong support.

Total supply has decreased.

PTA device, Fuhai 4 million 500 thousand tons of PTA device has been restarted. The impact of PTA supply has ended, and the next PTA device will usher in a small maintenance: 2 million 200 thousand tons of constant force, 1 million 500 thousand tons of Tong Kun Jiaxing, 700 thousand tons of Liwan polyester, 350 thousand tons of Yizheng chemical fiber and 600 thousand tons of Fujian Jialong 600 thousand tons. The total 5 million 300 thousand tons of equipment in the early August are in the state of overhaul, and the overall supply of PTA will decrease in the next two weeks.

Cash flow, PTA spot continued to decline, PTA processing fees fell to 900 yuan / ton near.

Demand is still the key.

At present, the grey fabric and polyester restart library, the demand side can not be improved, polyester production reduction may continue, and the pressure of production will also be further upstream, and then forced PTA prices down until the downstream cash flow to complete the repair. In recent years, although PTA has lost some profits in a sharp fall, the cash flow of pet has been repaired, but how can the market confidence have not yet been restored, and the factory's willingness to accept goods will not be enough. The demand will be the key variable that will affect the future market trend.

To sum up, the cost side is in a macro negative pressure, the international oil price shocks are adjusted, the PX price weakness has dropped, and the cost line has been moved below 5000 yuan / ton. The supply side Fuhai Chuang PTA device restarts, weakens the maintenance effect of other devices, PTA spot liquidity loosens, and the base continues to converge.

Demand side terminal orders were weak, and downstream construction started to decline further. But with the repair of polyester cash flow, polyester loading or rebound may occur. Therefore, in the short term, PTA prices will not improve in the short term. Focus on the support of the 5000 pass. (source: Guoxin futures, first futures)