2017 "Black Swans" Or Frequent Cotton Prices Or Huge Fluctuations.

The US dollar and US stocks continue to rise, and the Fed's rate hikes seem to be "on the nail", so the prospects for commodity rebound are not optimistic; third, the cotton market in the northern hemisphere is on the market. In addition to India's cotton price falling into a bear, Australia's total cotton production in 2016/17 is expected to reach 1 million 30 thousand tons, and the competition with the US cotton in the international market tends to be "meat bowl"; in the middle of 1-2, due to the influence of Chinese traditional Spring Festival, cotton purchase,

Basically stagnated, coupled with the tight cash flow of cotton mills at the end of the year, cotton spot is difficult to show.

Therefore, "far strong and near weak" is the consensus of cotton enterprises, traders and investment institutions.

"No gambling market, no risk, this year is to accompany Prince Edward to read."

This is the fundamental reason why some cotton mills and cotton merchants are hesitant.

Since late November, the oscillations of ICE futures and Zheng cotton contracts have narrowed significantly, and the two sides are mostly focused on testing, and the direction of the disk is not clear.

ICE main contract in 70-73 cents / pound, zhengmian May contract in the 15600-16500 compartment of the body repeatedly adjusted, judging by Futures Company and investment institutions, the middle and long term bullish atmosphere still occupies the mainstream.

Industry analysis, "short-term weakness is definitely weak, but how much can it fall? At present, it is only a process of digestion, absorption and even time for space."

The current profits are mainly concentrated on the following points: first, the beginning of the reserve cotton rotation in March 6, 2017, the bottom price, the number of rounds and the quality of the reserve cotton will have a greater impact on the trend of cotton market in 2016/17; the second is the uncertainty of the external market.

Some agencies believe that Zheng cotton's main contract return to 16500 yuan / ton and even 17000 yuan / ton (breaking the annual high point 16910 yuan / ton) probability is relatively large. Before the Spring Festival, clearing up the warehouse and putting bags into safety are not desirable. The competition among the cotton enterprises in the territory is to move to the mainland, and wait for the opening up of the cotton market after March 2017.

The CF1705 contract will end up in the range of 16000-16500 yuan / ton, and the difficulty of breaking up and stabilizing 16500 yuan / ton is not small. Unless the funds, fundamentals and the peripheral market are very strong, the cotton enterprises in 2016/17 will not earn enough money.

The reasons are summarized as follows:

First,

There will be no pressure on firm offer.

According to statistics, as of December 6th, as of December 6th, 744 cotton warehouse receipts of zhengmian increased by 64 compared with yesterday, and the effective forecast has reached 1981. Moreover, because effective forecasts are mainly 100% sets of policies for foreign businessmen and traders, the probability of generating warehouse receipts and delivery is large. Warehouse receipts + forecast =2725 Zhang (about 117 thousand tons), once the CF1705 breaks through 16000 yuan / ton, there will be a large number of futures warehouse receipts "pressure city"; ICE is also facing the same problem.

Although the progress of signing export has increased significantly (the contract rate reaches more than 60% of the annual output), cotton resources are mainly in the intermediate links such as international cotton traders and traders, but not in the hands of end customers. ICE hedging has become an inevitable means to avoid risks.

Secondly, the hype of weather and pport capacity has been reduced.

In December, there were still a small number of acquisition activities in Korla, Akesu cotton and inner cotton areas in the southern Xinjiang, and the acquisition of cotton seed in other cotton areas has ended. Most of the cotton mill in North Xinjiang finished processing before December 15th, and the weather has little effect on the market. With the rapid growth of the recent highway pportation and the upgrading of Korla railway line, the pportation pressure of Xinjiang cotton has been relieved. It is estimated that in December, the railway pportation in the 1-2 month will usher in a blowout, and the shortage of Xinjiang cotton in the mainland market will be fundamentally improved.

Again, in 2017, domestic cotton consumption, the surrounding market or flying from time to time, "Black Swans".

Because of the 45% tariff imposed on China's export commodities during Trump's campaign, the contribution of textiles and clothing to the export of US cotton to foreign exchange is not small. Once implemented, China's textile industry will be hit hard. And the EU and other developed countries should also be vigilant. From the analysis of Wall Street and other investment institutions, not only will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in December, there will be 3-4 additional interest rates in 2017, but the impact on the commodity market is not expected to be small, and the road to rebound has ended. In addition, geopolitics and conflicts in various countries in 2017 have entered a high incidence period.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.