Zhang Jingwei: Carnival And Anti Intelligence Of Individual Investors

After the financial crisis on Wall Street, investment bankers and financial brokers from all walks of life also lamented that the stock speculation and money making were mostly illusory. Whether in the A-share market or other markets, it may be many retail investors who revel, but it is also them who are anti intellectual. What they earn is only a few "stock gods" who are lucky, intelligent and rich in capital.

In the past, due to the disordered regulation and illegal operation of the A-share market, many retail investors became the "vampires" of the stock market, and were trapped in ignorance. The investment risk of the stock market has become a speculative gamble, and many retail investors can only cry.

Return to the A-share market. The downward trend of the economy remains, the new normal of the economy has become a foregone conclusion, the Central Economic Work Conference is about to be held, and the future will face a more ambitious package of strategic economic decisions than ever before. The pace of reform in 2014 will continue, and the closing year of the 12th Five Year Plan also needs a more thorough restructuring to usher in the new year.

The Central Economic Work Conference is a time node. If there is a corresponding direction for monetary policy easing in the coming year, this bull market may continue in shock for some time. If there is no positive signal of monetary policy, the stock market may also be short-term "paranoid". Since this year, major institutions and public opinion have been predicting that monetary policy will be more relaxed - although in fact it is only a "micro stimulus" of targeted RRR reduction. but Central Bank Of Asymmetrical interest rate cut And aroused the market's firm association with the openness of monetary policy in the future. In addition, the macro-economy is still in downward adjustment, and the combined impact of monetary policy under the deflation situation in Europe and Japan, China's monetary policy easing seems to be firmly established.

　　 bull market The market is largely based on such a long-term favorable policy logic. In fact, what is more consistent with the bull market logic is the rebound after the downturn of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, while the blind optimistic speculation about the future policy is full of too many uncertain risks.

Stock market prediction is tempting, but it is also confusing. If major institutions, public opinion and stock commentators can determine the direction of the stock market, the world may be full of stock gods. The paradox is that large institutional investors may be rational - even speculative rational, but the majority of retail investors tend to become anti intellectual followers of chaotic news. Their belief is just the fundamental aspect of the stock market or the bull or the bear. Such fundamentals often run counter to the macro-economy, but they are derived from the so-called good news of policies.

Investors should be cautious when entering the market. When encountering a bull market, not everyone can make a fortune.