Central Bank: RMB Appreciation Pressure Still Exists In Macro Policy Or Return To Lenient.

" US dollar trend It is still a major factor determining the pace and magnitude of RMB appreciation.

The people's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the central bank) has issued a report recently, saying that because the weight of the US dollar in the basket of the RMB exchange rate is absolutely predominant, the pace and magnitude of the appreciation of the renminbi against the major currencies will depend largely on the US dollar trend, in addition to its own balance of payments surplus.

The report is written by Ji Min, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the central bank's Research Bureau and Wang Yue, the central bank's Ji'nan branch, which is published in the 8 month magazine of the central bank's China monetary market.

Yesterday morning, the central parity of RMB representing the official exchange rate was 6.7838, reaching the highest level in three weeks.

　　 RMB appreciation Pressure remains

According to the report of the central bank's Research Bureau, the main point of this article is to point out that the pace of appreciation of the renminbi against major currencies will largely depend on the US dollar trend.

This also seems to have been confirmed from the trend of the renminbi in the past month.

Take the RMB intermediate price representing the official exchange rate of RMB as an example. Since the global risk of "two bottom finding" intensified in August 9th, the US dollar has risen sharply, and the renminbi has plummeted all the way. By September 1st, the central parity of RMB has fallen to 6.8126, or 1 US dollars, which can be exchanged for ten yuan new low level of 6.8126 yuan. But in the past two days, with the "two bottom" concerns intensified, the US dollar fell sharply and the RMB rose to its highest level in three days at 6.7838 yesterday in three days.

But it is worth noting that Central Bank Research Bureau In the report, it also pointed out that since the central bank announced the resumption of foreign exchange reform in June 19th, the RMB exchange rate will be adjusted more by reference to a basket of currencies, which means that the trend of the renminbi and any major currency may not be exactly the same.

"If the dollar is stronger against the euro, the appreciation of the renminbi against the euro will be less than the appreciation of the euro before the reopening of the exchange rate. Conversely, if the euro is stronger against the US dollar, the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar will also be smaller than the appreciation rate of the euro against the US dollar." The report says.

The central bank's research bureau also conceded that "there is still a certain appreciation pressure on the main currencies of the RMB against the US dollar".

Macro policy or relaxation again

The central bank's research report also referred to the current macroeconomic situation and policies and anticipation.

The report pointed out that "the current dilemmas facing the macro-economy are increasing, and the third quarter is expected to be a policy vacuum period. There will be no substantive control measures, and mainly rely on flexible open market operations to maintain market liquidity and credit growth reasonably and moderately."

But the report also said that as the economic situation changes, policies may be adjusted. The positive fiscal policy will return again, with a focus on optimizing investment structure. Monetary policy will continue to ease liquidity in the interbank market, and it is possible to continue lending to some local financing platforms in the second half of this year.

In addition, the implementation of differentiated housing policy will pay more attention to market means, rather than simply restrict two suite loans; local financing platform, project loans may gradually focus on high-quality financing platform.